Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore the ability of EWMA, GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) to forecast volatilities of S&P500, SSEC and MICEX, reference to two time periods in the timeframe of the Syrian war. VaR is derived using the HS approach which incorporates in its calculation the volatility of the best chosen model. The added value is the application of EVT in order to determine VaR results, which are compared and analyzed to the results of the HS approach, to define the most accurate approach. Methodology of Work: Returns of the in-sample period prices are used in estimating ...

The exchange rate peg in an open market economy allows the flow of large amounts of money and helps market participants to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities between domestic and international interest rates. Pegging disconnects the interest rate from real economic conditions of the underlining assets. This is the case of Lebanon, where national banks find a greater return on investment in the risk-adjusted return on government bonds. The main finding in this thesis is that the high level of deposits at commercial banks correlates directly with the level of the Lebanon national debt. ...

Purpose – The term Brexit, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, is linked with the uncertainty raised due to the ambiguity of the economic relationship to be adopted between the U.K and the EU. This uncertainty is translated directly into a significant fluctuation of the British pound. Therefore, this research highlights the impact of the Brexit referendum on the British pound against the Euro, test the relationship between exchange rate volatility and U.K’s exports to Eurozone countries (Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, ...

Purpose – The purpose of this thesis is to determine the impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system. Design/methodology/approach – The econometric Chow model is used to test for structural breaks in the performance of selected sample GCC banks (Saudi, UAE, and Qatar banks) upon the occurrence of the recent oil price decline at the various aspects of bank performance (profitability, liquidity, credit quality, and capitalization). Findings – While Qatar banks are found to be resilient showing continuous performance over time, the Saudi and UAE banks are found to be significantly ...

Purpose -- The banking sector is the backbone of the backbone of the Lebanese economy, and Lebanese banks hold over half of the public debt. Therefore it is critical to periodically assess their efficiency and profitability. Failure to do so could lead the country to a debt crisis or even bankruptcy. The purpose of this study is the measure the efficiently and productivity of 24 Lebanese commercial banks in 2008, 2011 and 2013. Design/ methodology/ approach -- To measure relative efficiency, the study employed three data Envelopment analysis (DEA) models which are the CCR, BCC and A&P. the ...

Purpose: The objective of this thesis is to estimate and compare the capital requirements of an SME portfolio belonging to a Lebanese Commercial Bank under different regulatory frameworks, Basel I, Basel II and Basel III, in addition to illustrating the calculation of the capital adequacy ratio to comply with the requirements of BDL and BCCL. Design/methodology/approach: The sample used consists of a portfolio of loans granted by a Lebanese commercial bank to 1,099 different clients as of June 30, 2017. The study aims first at demonstrating the several approaches (Standardized Approach, IRB ...

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and assess the predictive ability of the GARCH (1,1), IGARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1), GJR-GARCH (1,1), APARCH (1,1), TGARCH (1,1) and CGARCH (1,1) models in forecasting the volatilities of six major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Dogecoin and six world currencies: Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. The optimal volatility model selected for each virtual and hard currency is then integrated into the Volatility Update Historical Simulation approach to evaluate the ...

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to capture the relationship between credit risk of European commercial banks and their profitability, taking into consideration regulatory requirements under several stressed scenarios. Design/Methodology/Approach - The sample of this study consists of 12 out of 15 largest commercial banks in Europe as measured by their total assets in 2017. This study uses hypothesis testing and stress testing approaches to capture the relationship between credit risk of banks and their profitability and to determine the sufficiency of bank capital adequacy. Findings ...

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the ability of EWMA, GARCH (1, 1), GARCH (p, q) and EGARCH (1, 1) to forecast volatilities of Bitcoin, Ripple, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD. The optimal volatility model for each fiat and virtual currency is used to measure the accuracy of VaR by incorporating the volatility update into the Historical Simulation approach. Design/Methodology/Approach: In-sample returns are calculated from daily closing prices and are used in estimating the parameters of the selected models. The calculated in-sample parameters are applied to estimate and forecast ...