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Browsing Theses and Dissertations by Subject "Exponentially weighted moving average"

Browsing Theses and Dissertations by Subject "Exponentially weighted moving average"

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  • Maalouf, Nisrine Elias (Notre Dame University-Louaize., 2019)
    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore the ability of EWMA, GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) to forecast volatilities of S&P500, SSEC and MICEX, reference to two time periods in the timeframe of the Syrian war. VaR is derived using the HS approach which incorporates in its calculation the volatility of the best chosen model. The added value is the application of EVT in order to determine VaR results, which are compared and analyzed to the results of the HS approach, to define the most accurate approach. Methodology of Work: Returns of the in-sample period prices are used in estimating ...
  • Azar, Milad Fouad (Notre Dame University-Louaize, 2018-04)
    Purpose: This study has two main purposes. First, Assess and compare the predictive ability of the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average EWMA, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity EGARCH (1, 1), the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity EGARCH (1, 1), and the Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedasticity GJR-GARCH. Second, Value at Risk is calculated using the Historical Simulation approach and the Extreme Value Theory. Methodology, Design and Approach: The models’ parameters are estimated from ...
  • Haddad, Omar (Notre Dame University-Louaize, 2020-05)
    Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and assess the predictive ability of the GARCH (1,1), IGARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1), GJR-GARCH (1,1), APARCH (1,1), TGARCH (1,1) and CGARCH (1,1) models in forecasting the volatilities of six major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Dogecoin and six world currencies: Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. The optimal volatility model selected for each virtual and hard currency is then integrated into the Volatility Update Historical Simulation approach to evaluate the ...
  • El Chidiac, Johnny (Notre Dame University-Louaize, 2019)
    Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the ability of EWMA, GARCH (1, 1), GARCH (p, q) and EGARCH (1, 1) to forecast volatilities of Bitcoin, Ripple, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD. The optimal volatility model for each fiat and virtual currency is used to measure the accuracy of VaR by incorporating the volatility update into the Historical Simulation approach. Design/Methodology/Approach: In-sample returns are calculated from daily closing prices and are used in estimating the parameters of the selected models. The calculated in-sample parameters are applied to estimate and forecast ...

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