Purpose - Currency crises remain a major source of macroeconomic instability in emerging economies, yet there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the mechanisms through which macroeconomic vulnerabilities translate into currency instability. While traditional models emphasize macroeconomic imbalances as primary drivers, recent research highlights the role of institutional quality in shaping economic resilience and policy credibility. This study examines how macroeconomic fundamentals and governance interact in determining currency crisis probabilities within fragile emerging markets. Approach ...